TheFalloutgames have been one of Bethesda’s flagship franchises for years, but the future of the satirical dystopian series has never been less clear. While there’s been no official news from the developer aboutFallout 5, this year has seen rumors claiming that both a fifth mainFalloutgame andFallout: New Vegas 2may be in the works. The flurry of accompanying speculation has made things all the more confusing for fans who just want to know when they can next expect to hop in their power armor and set off into the wasteland.
Keeping up with the recent rumors aboutFallout 5can be tough, but it’s far from the only challenge fans face. Some rumors are more reliable than others, and to top things off there may be reasons to believe that even the most reliable reports won’t matter much when considering some of the recent moves made by Bethesda.
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Microsoft, Obsidian, And The Bethesda Schedule Leaks
The year began with some interesting news forFalloutfans. On January 19 video game leakerTyler McVicker, known for his accurate insider information about Valve and Nintendo in the past, took to Twitter to talk about the future ofFallout.
While giving some fans hope, the Tweet also points to some of the major problems faced byFalloutfans when dissecting supposed leaks. First, there’s the question of what meaningfully distinguishesFallout 5fromFallout: New Vegas 2. Some would say thatFallout: New Vegas 2has to be a follow up to the story and setting of Obsidian’s 2010Falloutgame.
Others would argue thatFallout 5is the next Bethesda-developedFalloutgame, whileFallout: New Vegas 2refers to any upcomingFalloutgame developed by a third party. McVicker himself has already claimed thatObsidian Entertainment"likely won’t have anything to do with" the development ofFallout: New Vegas 2, but it isn’t clear if his version ofNew Vegas 2refers to a story sequel or just another spin-off.
Speculation that Obsidian could be working on the nextFalloutgame was fueled towards the end of 2020 by two pieces of news. First was the acquisition of Bethesda’s parent studioZeniMax Mediaby Microsoft, which already owned Obsidian at the time. Second was the news that Obsidian itself was working on multiple RPG projects, though as of E3 at least one of those has now been confirmed asThe Outer Worlds 2.
Starfield’s release datewas recently confirmed at Bethesda’s E3 2021 showcase, with the game launching June 05, 2025. That makes McVicker’s timeline roughly accurate so far, althoughStarfield’s release window was among the easiest to predict as the game had already been confirmed as Bethesda Game Studios' next release. Although McVicker’s leak is still likely among the most reliable leaks regardingFallout 5to come out this year, fans are still left with next to no information about the game.
Even if McVicker’s rough timeline for Bethesda releases was correct in January 2021, Bethesda is going through a period of reorientation that could drastically reshape its journey through the next decade.Starfieldwill be the studio’s first new IP in over 25 years, and its reception could have a huge effect on the development of other planned projects. Bethesda may be an RPG giant, but focusing on a new IP is an undoubtedly risky move that may not pay off, especially withStarfield’s Xbox exclusivityon consoles.
By the timeStarfieldreleases, the studio may not have even begun working on pre-production forFallout 5, even if the game was planned to begin development after therelease ofThe Elder Scrolls 6. This could make the future ofFalloutthe most susceptible to change of any of Bethesda’s IPs. Unless a third party is brought in to develop aFalloutgame again, the evidence may point to the franchise being on the backburner. Even McVicker’s leak only narrows downFallout 5’s potential release to the 2030s, by which time Bethesda and the open-world RPG market could be completely unrecognizable.
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The Ben Decker Rumors And Fallout’s Future
Back in May, a new round of rumors was sparked when Xbox’s Ben Decker told GamesRadar that “we have 23 studios across Xbox and Bethesda, working onHalo,Forza,Fallout, and new IP that we haven’t even talked about yet that’s gonna blow your mind.” Many took this as a slip revealing that a newFalloutgame was in development. However, it could just as easily have been a comment on DLC forFallout 76, like the upcomingreturn to The Pitt, a third-partyFalloutgame, or something else. “Working on” is a very loose term, and Decker’s comments do not mean thatFallout 5is in development.
In fact, the evidence seems to point toFallout 5being so far down the line and so subject to the development processes and receptions ofStarfieldandThe Elder Scrolls 6that any rumors claiming to know details about the game or a release window are dubious to say the least. It’s unlikely that even Bethesda can clearly define the future of theFalloutfranchise at this stage, particularlyFallout 5. Athird-partyFalloutgamecould be increasingly likely, however, if Bethesda has less and less time to dedicate toFalloutover its schedule for the next decade.
The only thing that seems to be for certain for fans looking forward toFallout 5is that they’re going to be in for a very long wait. It doesn’t seem likely that Bethesda will abandon one of its major IPs entirely, and after the release of bothStarfieldandThe Elder Scrolls 6a newFalloutgame does seem like the natural next step. That may even be Bethesda’s current plan as theTyler McVicker leakssuggest, but setting that schedule in stone would likely make the studio too rigid at a time when it may need to be more flexible than ever.
